Well here’s a tip… look at who is rested. Look at which teams contain the players that didn’t have long overly successful club seasons. Especially in big club tournaments like the Champions League where a lot of travel is required. The physical and mental strain catches up. International teams have top players from top clubs. Very little separates these players and any team can win on any day, but rested stars with the motivation to capture the glory they couldn’t achieve with their own club are the most dangerous.
This year Christiano Ronaldo and Man United won the English Premier League and continued late into May to win the Champions League. Ronaldo’s Portugal went out in the quarters to Germany. Germany’s stars largely come from Bayern Munich who walked to the league championship and didn’t compete in the Champions League. Their goalie Jens Lehman came from the same Arsenal team (that won nothing) as Cesc Fabregas who went on to win Euro 08 with Spain. David Villa had a tough season with Valencia even though they did manage the Copa del Rey. Fernando Torres’ Liverpool had little success in the Premier League although he individually did well. Many of the other Spanish stars coasted to the end of the Spanish season with Real Madrid easing to the title quite early.
When Italy won the World Cup in 2006 most of their stars were dealing with the news of match fixing in Serie A. They were desperate to prove they were indeed great players. Not just winners because of cheating.
Is it a coincidence that in the same year England didn’t qualify for the Euros, 3 out of the 4 semi-finalists in the Champions League were from the Premier League? I don’t think so. Those players were especially motivated to prove themselves and not looking ahead to a summer full of more competition.
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